The pandemic disease outbreaks are causing a significant financial crisis affecting the worldwide economy. Machine learning techniques are urgently required to detect, predict and analyze the economy for early economic planning and growth. Many studies have shown that t
More
The pandemic disease outbreaks are causing a significant financial crisis affecting the worldwide economy. Machine learning techniques are urgently required to detect, predict and analyze the economy for early economic planning and growth. Many studies have shown that the spread of the disease has experienced a significant change in the economy. Consequently, in this paper, we use machine learning classifiers- Multi-layer Perceptron- Neural Network (MLP-NN), Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Random Forest (RF) Regressors to construct an early warning model for economic crisis detection. A publicly available database created by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is used to validate the model, which contains information about national revenue, employment rate, and workers' earnings of USA over 239 days (1 January 2020 to 12 May 2020). As a performance metric, we have used recession and prediction accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the MLP-NN and RF classifiers have exhibited average 88.33% and 85% of recession (where 95%, 81%, 89% and 85%, 81%, 89% for revenue, employment rate and workers earnings, respectively) and average 90.67% and 93.67% of prediction accuracy for LSTM and RF regressors (where 92%, 90%, 90%, and 95%, 93%, 93% respectively).
Manuscript profile